Commentary

Through innovation and global expansion, large tech companies are increasingly influencing international policy. Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Huawei control key AI infrastructure, data flows, and communication networks, giving them considerable influence over both economic and security spheres.  Huawei’s leadership in 5G networks, for instance, has prompted diplomatic tensions between the United States, the European Union, and China, highlighting how corporate decisions can have direct geopolitical consequences.

Non-state actors, such as NGOs and think tanks, use AI to analyse data, shape policy, and run campaigns on issues like human rights, climate change, global health, and others. Such approach ensures that international discussions are no longer limited to formal intergovernmental channels, but that a broader public has the opportunity to engage in shaping important decisions.

Moreover, individual civil activists, influencers, and even teenage hackers can act as unofficial participants in international relations. During conflicts or political crises, they can use AI tools and social media to form narratives and mobilise public support. From 27 May 2025, the day after an Israeli airstrike killed dozens of civilians in the Gaza City of Rafah, an AI-generated image depicting tent camps for displaced Palestinians and the slogan “All Eyes on Rafah” went viral on Instagram. The image, in just a few days, got almost 50 million shares, including from celebrities such as Dua Lipa, Lewis Hamilton, and the Hadid sisters. The campaign, or rather a single AI-generated image, drew unprecedented global attention to Gaza’s humanitarian crisis in record time, achieving what neither the UN nor leading politicians managed through formal diplomacy. It demonstrates how digital tools and social media can augment individual voices and form public attitudes during crises. The inclusion of such non-state actors, on the one hand, ensures broad participation, but at the same time complicates the conduct of diplomacy, as states must deal with non-traditional players that hold significant influence, making it more difficult to establish norms, ensure accountability, and conduct negotiations.

 

Transforming the Practice of Diplomacy

Artificial Intelligence and digital technologies are changing not only who participates in diplomacy but also how diplomacy is practised. Advances in AI have improved communication and decision-making. Automated briefings, real-time translation, and AI-powered summarisation help diplomats quickly process large amounts of information and communicate with international partners. Predictive analytics allow policymakers to anticipate conflict hotspots, optimise resource allocation, and inform crisis response.

Social media platforms provide tools for public engagement, the analysis of international public opinion, and the dissemination of official positions. AI enhances these capabilities by analysing trends, identifying misinformation, and enabling targeted outreach. Ukrainian startups such as Osavul and Mantis Analytics are good examples. Emerged in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion, they utilise large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing (NLP) to detect and analyse disinformation online rapidly. Working closely with the government agencies of Ukraine, they help limit the impact of propaganda by delivering accurate information faster than false narratives can spread.

While AI increases efficiency, it also contains vulnerabilities. Algorithms, like high-precision weapons, are not yet sophisticated enough to exclude errors. Biases that twist analysis or policy recommendations, as well as overreliance on machine-generated insights, can undermine critical human judgment. For instance, in July 2025, an impostor used AI voice cloning to impersonate U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and sent messages to diplomats and senior officials, attempting to influence sensitive communications. It was not the first attempt. A similar incident happened earlier involving President Donald Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles. The misuse of AI to mislead people is likely to grow as the technology advances and becomes more accessible.

Moreover, the rise of deepfakes and AI-manipulated content poses a threat to trust in diplomatic communications. In 2024, a “deepfake” caller pretending to be Ukraine’s former foreign minister nearly tricked a U.S. senator into a politically charged Zoom call. Although still relatively isolated, such cases illustrate how AI-driven manipulation can complicate diplomatic dialogue and strain confidence between international actors, underscoring the importance of developing safeguards to preserve credibility and reliability in diplomatic communications.

AI as a Diplomatic Tool: Opportunities and Limitations

The integration of Artificial Intelligence into diplomacy has moved beyond theoretical debate and entered the stage of practical experimentation. An illustrative example of this is a pilot study by the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, to examine the potential of artificial intelligence as a supporting instrument in diplomatic negotiations. The researchers used AI to process archival documents from two well-known historical negotiation cases, comparing the machine-generated analytical results with those produced through conventional diplomatic assessment. The findings showed that AI systems can recognise patterns, strategic options, and hidden dynamics that even a team of highly skilled negotiators might overlook. However, AI still makes mistakes and will not replace the judgment of experienced diplomats in the near future. As a supporting tool, though, it has the potential to make a valuable contribution to the preparation and conduct of diplomatic negotiations. Although the study was only exploratory, it represents an important first step toward using AI-based analytical methods in diplomatic research and practice.

Building on such early experiments, AI now offers tangible opportunities to enhance diplomatic effectiveness across multiple domains. One of the most promising applications is in scenario planning and negotiation. By analysing vast datasets on political, economic, and social trends, AI can model complex international scenarios, allowing diplomats to anticipate crises, identify risks, and evaluate the consequences of various policy choices. A concrete example is the CSIS Futures Lab report on potential peace scenarios in Ukraine. Researchers applied foundational international relations literature to structure datasets and refine AI-driven analysis using techniques such as few-shot learning, in-context learning, and chain-of-thought reasoning. Using Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), the team rapidly synthesised and summarised key documents related to potential peace agreements, providing diplomats with evidence-based insights to inform negotiation strategies.

In addition to its use in analytical forecasting, AI contributes to strategic early warning and crisis prevention. Predictive platforms, such as the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS), process political event data to forecast instability, enabling policymakers to prepare negotiation frameworks or allocate resources before tensions escalate. Together, these applications demonstrate how AI can enhance strategic foresight and equip diplomats with practical tools to approach complex negotiations more effectively.

AI is also transforming multilateral diplomacy, where coordination among diverse stakeholders is essential. Digital platforms powered by AI can analyse communication flows, identify emerging areas of consensus or disagreement, and support synchronised engagement with multiple actors, including states, international organisations, private sector partners, and civil society. A notable case is NATO’s Cyber Coalition exercise 2024, held in Tallinn, Estonia, which involved nearly 200 participants on-site and more than 1,300 cyber defenders from Allies and partners. The exercise, led by NATO’s Allied Command Transformation, aimed to enhance the alliance’s cybersecurity capabilities. AI was used to combine mission, threat, and network data into real-time dashboards, helping participants make decisions and assess cyber risks. This demonstrated how AI can improve coordination, situational awareness, and collaborative decision-making in complex security environments. Similarly, the European Union utilises AI in policy simulations and cybersecurity exercises to align the approaches of its member states and enhance joint action. Through the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), AI-based foresight methods are applied to anticipate future cyber threats, map emerging challenges, and prioritise technologies with security implications, strengthening Europe’s preparedness and strategic resilience. Together, these examples illustrate how AI enhances efficiency, fosters collaboration, and supports inclusive, evidence-based diplomacy in multilateral settings.

Nevertheless, the application of AI in diplomacy is not without limitations and risks. Algorithms may contain biases, and overreliance on AI can diminish human judgment, a critical element in negotiation and conflict resolution. The misuse of AI for surveillance, disinformation campaigns, or coercive tactics can erode trust and undermine international norms. Moreover, dependence on private technology providers for critical AI infrastructure introduces strategic vulnerabilities, as states may become reliant on corporate decisions and technical capabilities beyond their control. Ethical considerations, including transparency, accountability, and the protection of human rights, must therefore be carefully managed. In this regard, the European Union has emerged as a regulatory superpower, shaping global norms through legislation such as the AI Act. By imposing rigorous standards on privacy, algorithmic accountability, and ethical AI, the EU influences not only its member states but also foreign companies seeking access to the European market.

Conclusion

AI is transforming diplomacy, expanding participation and strengthening crisis management, but also creating new vulnerabilities. The future of diplomacy, like most other spheres, will be hybrid, blending human judgment with AI-enabled insights. Ultimately, the success of AI in diplomacy will depend not only on technology alone, but also on diplomats’ ability to integrate AI responsibly, uphold ethical standards, and protect fundamental rights. When applied with care, AI can serve as a strategic asset, reinforcing diplomacy in an increasingly complex international system.