Changing South Caucasus: Time for EU Leadership

The South Caucasus is a strategic crossroad of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and its geopolitical significance has grown markedly in the past six years. The development is driven by regional and systemic shocks such as the 2020 Karabakh war, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the rapid reconfiguration of transit and energy corridors, most notably the Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor. At the same time, regional powers such as Turkey, China, and Iran have become more assertive, and the United States is clearly renewing its strategy for the region. These transformations elevate the region’s importance for Europe and its ambitions for connectivity, supply-chain resilience, and energy diversification. They introduce complex challenges but also present opportunities for the European Union’s traditional framework of engagement.